An Israeli journalist received death threats from users of the online prediction platform Polymarket after reporting on a minor missile strike near Jerusalem. Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel, reported that the incident impacted bets worth over $23 million placed on whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10.
Key Takeaways
An Israeli journalist received death threats from Polymarket users after reporting on a minor missile strike near Jerusalem that impacted their bets. The incident raises concerns over prediction markets' influence and potential for manipulation.
- Emanuel Fabian, a Times of Israel correspondent, reported on a March 10 missile strike
- Polymarket users threatened him to change the report to affect $23M bet outcome
- Messages included threats against his life and family, as well as bribes
- The incident highlights concerns about prediction markets' influence and manipulation potential
Fabian received threatening messages via email, WhatsApp, and X (formerly Twitter) demanding he change his report to reflect that an interceptor fragment had hit the ground instead of a missile. According to The Guardian, one message stated: "After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you." Another said: "You have 90 minutes left to update the lie. If you do this, you will solve the most serious problem you have caused yourself in life... If you decide not to correct it, and leave the lie intact, you will discover enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable."
Fabian's report, which mentioned no injuries and included dashboard footage of the explosion, became central to a Polymarket bet that required a bomb or missile hitting Israeli soil for it to count as a "strike". Fox News reported that Fabian received requests to alter his reporting from another journalist whose acquaintance admitted placing bets on Polymarket and offered compensation if he could convince Fabian to change his report.
The incident has raised concerns about the influence of online prediction markets, which have faced criticism for potentially facilitating war profiteering and insider trading. Polymarket, backed by investors including a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr., has been marketing a sentiment analysis tool that could shape larger market trades.
Mark Roulston, a researcher focused on prediction markets at the University of Lancashire, warned that such platforms could have chaotic consequences. He noted: "I think one danger is some of these markets... will be more easy to manipulate. If the outcome of those markets or what those markets are predicting is being used then to trade more liquid, deeper liquid financial markets, you could imagine a situation where people set out to manipulate the prediction markets with the hope of then using that to manipulate the deeper markets where a lot more money can be made."
Polymarket issued statements condemning attempts to pressure journalists and banned accounts involved in the threats. The platform also stated it would pass relevant information to authorities, as reported by Fox News. Fabian has not heard of other journalists facing similar threats but predicted that if Polymarket continues growing without changing its operations, others might experience harassment or threats.
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