California is bracing for a potential super El Niño event that could bring significant weather changes to the state. According to forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific may exceed seasonal averages by 2 degrees Celsius.
Key Takeaways
California is preparing for a potential super El Niño event that could significantly alter weather patterns. Forecasts indicate sea surface temperatures may exceed seasonal averages by 2 degrees Celsius, with NOAA placing the odds at 1 in 4. This rare event could bring wet winters to Southern California, reducing wildfire risk but also causing flooding and coastal erosion.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts the odds of this happening by late fall at 1 in 4. Such events are known as super El Niños—relatively rare occurrences that are more likely to generate wide-ranging effects, according to Jonathan O’Brien, a meteorologist with the U.S. Forest Service.
El Niño is one phase of the recurring global cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs when changes in tropical wind patterns allow warm seawater to slosh east across the Pacific and up against the Americas. This unusually warm water typically releases heat into the air, spiking global temperatures already climbing due to climate change from burning fossil fuels.
The amount of warm water available for this year’s event exceeds that recorded during the 1997-98 El Niño, which was among the strongest of the century. Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Albany, noted that if current trends continue, this year's El Niño could be stronger than any other since the late 1870s.
In Southern California, strong El Niños increase the likelihood of wet winters that replenish water supplies and reduce wildfire risk but can also unleash flooding, debris flows, and coastal erosion. The exact effects are impossible to predict, but experts caution that even when strong El Niños develop, they don’t always translate into the expected weather conditions.
March’s persistent unseasonable heat was so intense that the continental United States registered its most abnormally hot month in 132 years of records. The average temperature of 50.85°F (10.47°C) was 9.35°F (5.19°C) above the 20th-century normal for March, easily passing the old record set in March 2012 according to NOAA.
Six of the nation’s top 10 most abnormally hot months have been in the last 10 years. The average maximum temperature for March was especially high at 11.4°F above the 20th-century average and almost a degree warmer than the average daytime high for April.
Climate Central's Shel Winkley noted that this unprecedented heat is concerning due to the sheer volume of records broken, coming after the worst snow year and hottest winter on record. The European climate service Copernicus and NOAA are both forecasting a strong El Niño to form in a few months and intensify into the winter.
Victor Gensini, a Northern Illinois University meteorology professor, suggested that a strong El Niño could push global temperatures to new record levels in late 2026 and into 2027. The combination of extreme heat and dry conditions poses significant challenges for water availability, agriculture, river levels, and navigation.
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