NOAA predicts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026 with eight to 14 named storms, including one to three major hurricanes. The forecast comes as federal officials warn that climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous despite the predicted lower activity.
Key Takeaways
NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with eight to 14 named storms, including one to three major hurricanes. Climate change may intensify these storms despite lower activity. The Pacific faces above-average storm risks due to El Niño. Federal funding cuts threaten NOAA's forecasting capabilities.
- NOAA forecasts 8-14 named Atlantic storms with 3-6 becoming hurricanes, including 1-3 major ones
- Climate change may intensify storms despite lower activity levels
- Pacific faces above-normal storm risks due to El Niño
- Federal cuts threaten NOAA's forecasting capabilities and resources
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▼Source Claims Check
1 Difference FoundAll 9 publishers report consistent facts across 4 key claims. 1 point of difference noted.
| Claim | Status | Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Storm Activity | 1 Difference | Majority reports specific storm numbers; outliers cite general risk increase | ▼ |
| Atlantic Named Storms | Broad Agreement | 8-14 named storms forecast for Atlantic in 2026 season | |
| Atlantic Hurricanes | Broad Agreement | 3-6 hurricanes expected, including 1-3 major ones | |
| El Nino Probability | Broad Agreement | 98% chance of El Niño occurring later this season | |
| Marine Heatwave | Broad Agreement | Marine heatwave off US west coast expected to expand and strengthen |
Pacific Storm Activity
▼Majority reports specific storm numbers; outliers cite general risk increase
Atlantic Named Storms
Broad Agreement8-14 named storms forecast for Atlantic in 2026 season
Atlantic Hurricanes
Broad Agreement3-6 hurricanes expected, including 1-3 major ones
El Nino Probability
Broad Agreement98% chance of El Niño occurring later this season
Marine Heatwave
Broad AgreementMarine heatwave off US west coast expected to expand and strengthen
This analysis is AI-generated and may not perfectly represent each source's reporting. Always read the original articles for full context.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced its outlook for the season, which begins on June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs stated there's a 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal conditions, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
Federal officials emphasized that even a below-average season can pose serious risks due to climate change factors. Warm ocean temperatures could fuel more intense storms while developing El Niño conditions may suppress Atlantic activity but increase Pacific storm formation. NOAA predicts a 98% chance of El Niño occurring later this season, which is expected to expand and strengthen in the coming months.
In the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, forecasters predict a 70% chance of above-normal activity with 15 to 22 named storms expected. This increased Pacific activity raises exposure risks for populations in Mexico, southern California, and Hawaii according to meteorologist John Morales. The forecast comes amid warnings that the US is unprepared for hurricane season due to staffing cuts at NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS). These cuts have degraded the country's ability to accurately forecast climate-fueled extreme weather.
Private forecasting companies predict similar levels of activity with Colorado State University expecting 13 named storms and AccuWeather predicting 11 to 16. NOAA's outlook is generally accurate but not always exact as seen in their 2025 predictions which were slightly off from actual storm counts. The agency will update its forecast throughout the summer to reflect any changes. Despite improved forecasting technologies, federal cuts threaten NOAA's ability to collect critical observations and maintain progress.
How this summary was created
This summary synthesizes reporting from 9 independent publishers using AI. All sources are cited and linked below. NewsBalance is a news aggregator and media literacy tool, not a news publisher. AI-generated content may contain errors or inaccuracies — always verify important information with the original sources.