The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in June, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 57,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, but this decline was largely attributed to about 720,000 people leaving the labor force, pushing the participation rate to its lowest level in over five years.
Key Takeaways
U.S. job growth slowed significantly in June, falling short of expectations with only 57,000 new jobs added. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, but this was largely due to a decrease in labor force participation rather than robust employment gains.
- U.S. adds just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June
- Unemployment rate falls to 4.2% as labor force shrinks
- Leisure and hospitality sector sees unexpected decline of 61,000 jobs
- Fed likely to delay interest rate hike amid cooling job market
Source Claims Check
High Consensus| Claim | Status | Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls Increase | Broad Agreement | 57,000 jobs added in June | |
| Unemployment Rate | Broad Agreement | 4.2% in June, down from 4.3% | |
| Labor Force Participation Rate | Broad Agreement | 61.5% in June, lowest since March 2021 | |
| Leisure And Hospitality Jobs | Broad Agreement | -61,000 in June, largest decline since December 2020 |
The slowdown in job growth has prompted financial markets to dial back expectations for a near-term interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Traders now see a 60% chance of a rate hike in September, down from about 75% before the jobs report, according to Reuters.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report revealed that payroll gains for April and May were also revised lower by a total of 74,000 jobs. The leisure and hospitality sector experienced an unexpected decline of 61,000 jobs, despite hopes that the FIFA World Cup tournament would boost hiring. Meanwhile, professional and business services led job gains with 36,000 new positions, followed by social assistance (25,000) and healthcare (22,000).
The moderation in payrolls aligns with other labor market surveys that have painted a less robust picture of the job market. Some economists suggest the slowdown may be a delayed reaction to the Middle East war, which has created uncertainties for businesses. Despite these challenges, companies have been reluctant to lay off workers due to ongoing difficulties in finding labor post-COVID pandemic.
The report was released a day early due to the U.S.'s 250th anniversary of independence on Saturday. The Fed's last policy meeting left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but updated projections indicated expectations for raising borrowing costs later this year.
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