El Niño Likely to Form by Summer

Scientists predict a strong El Niño event to form by mid-to-late summer, potentially becoming very powerful by fall and lasting into winter. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a high likelihood of El Niño emerging between June and August 2026 and persisting through the end of the year.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate variability with three phases: neutral, warm (El Niño), or cool (La Niña). El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise above normal for at least five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. This phenomenon significantly influences global weather patterns.

The upcoming El Niño could push global average annual temperatures past the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold, a critical point for potentially irreversible climate impacts. Experts warn that this event may be one of the strongest El Niño patterns ever recorded, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rising faster than at any other time this century.

The potential impacts vary by region. In Australia, large parts of the south-east are expected to experience drier and hotter conditions over the next three months. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts lower-than-usual rainfall in Queensland and New South Wales, with hotter than average maximum temperatures across almost the entire country.

The UK may also feel the effects, with meteorologists suggesting El Niño's intensity could be comparable to the 1997/98 event, which saw record high global temperatures. While summer months might bring warmer and drier conditions, there is an increased likelihood of colder winters.

The US, particularly western Pennsylvania, may experience near-to-slightly below-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation during the summer. The following winter could feature well-above-normal temperatures and slightly above-normal precipitation, similar to patterns observed in previous strong El Niño years.