A new study published in the journal Nature suggests that climate change's rising seas may threaten tens of millions more people than previously thought due to mistaken research assumptions about baseline coastal water heights. Researchers analyzed hundreds of scientific studies and hazard assessments, finding that approximately 90% underestimated baseline coastal water heights by an average of one foot (30 centimeters). This issue is more prevalent in the Global South, Pacific, and Southeast Asia than in Europe or along Atlantic coasts.
Key Takeaways
A new study published in Nature reveals that sea levels are higher than previously thought due to methodological blind spots in measuring coastal water heights. This discrepancy threatens an additional 77 million to 132 million people by the end of the century, particularly in lower-income regions like Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
The discrepancy stems from a mismatch between how sea and land altitudes are measured. Study co-author Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands, attributed this to a 'methodological blind spot' between different measurement methods. Many studies assume sea levels without waves or currents, while reality includes factors like wind, tides, currents, and changing temperatures.
Adjusting for more accurate coastal height baselines suggests that if seas rise by over three feet (one meter) by the end of the century, waters could inundate up to 37% more land. This would threaten an additional 77 million to 132 million people, posing significant challenges for planning and funding climate impacts.
The study highlights the severe impact on coastal communities in regions like Vanuatu, where shorelines have visibly retreated within a single generation. Climate activist Vepaiamele Trief from Vanuatu emphasized the personal stakes: 'These studies, they aren’t just words on a paper. They’re people’s actual livelihoods.'
Experts like Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central, pointed out that calculations for seas and land are often correct individually but fail at their intersection. Some scientists, however, believe the study may exaggerate the implications for impact studies, noting that local planners generally understand coastal issues.
The findings come alongside a UNESCO report warning of significant gaps in understanding how much carbon the ocean absorbs. Together, these studies suggest governments may be planning for coastal and climate risks with an incomplete picture of ocean changes.
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