Australia is bracing for a rare 'super' El Niño event that promises a hotter and drier summer than usual. The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed the end of the 2025-26 La Niña, signaling the imminent onset of its opposite phase, El Niño. This climate pattern is expected to bring warmer Pacific waters and weaker trade winds, leading to significantly drier conditions across Australia.
Key Takeaways
A rare 'super' El Niño event is expected to bring a hotter and drier summer to millions in Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed that the La Niña has ended and warned about the upcoming El Niño, which could be one of the most powerful in a century.
- A super El Niño climate pattern is brewing in the Pacific
- Forecasters predict hotter temperatures and increased risk of drought and bushfires
- The event is expected to impact Australia well into 2027
- Carbon Brief predicts 2026 will be the second-warmest year on record
The upcoming super El Niño event could be one of the most powerful in a century, according to experts. The Bureau's long-range forecast indicates below-average rainfall for parts of eastern and south-western Australia from May to July. This phenomenon is anticipated to develop in late winter or early spring and will impact the country well into 2027. Key areas such as Sydney can expect more days with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, while tropical regions may experience a delayed monsoon season.
The last significant El Niño event in 2018-19 played a major role in the devastating Black Summer bushfires. The upcoming event raises concerns about heightened risks of drought and bushfires, particularly along the east coast. Additionally, there may be a shorter snow season for New South Wales ski resorts due to reduced rainfall.
The impact of this El Niño extends beyond Australia's borders. Carbon Brief predicts that 2026 will be the second-warmest year on record, with a 19% chance it could surpass 2024 as the warmest. The global climate models also indicate significant shifts in weather patterns, affecting regions like Southeast Michigan and the Great Lakes.
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