UN Warns of Extreme Weather as El Nino Likely

The United Nations has warned that an emerging El Nino weather pattern could drive extreme weather conditions globally over the coming months. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% chance of an El Nino event forming between June and August, rising to a roughly 90% likelihood by November.

The WMO issued this alert in a news release on Tuesday, emphasizing that warm ocean waters are driving El Nino's development. The weather pattern is expected to bring above-average temperatures worldwide from June to August, with the potential for at least moderate and possibly strong conditions.

El Nino can trigger increased rainfall in southern South America, parts of the US, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. Conversely, it may cause droughts in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. The phenomenon could also spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that the world must treat this as an urgent climate warning, emphasizing the need for global preparedness. 'The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 percent certainty,' said Guterres. He warned that impacts will hit harder and travel farther, crossing borders with devastating speed.

The WMO also noted that this year's El Nino phenomenon could fuel severe wildfires, according to researchers at Imperial College London and the World Weather Attribution network of climate scientists. In anticipation, the European Union has announced plans to deploy a record number of firefighters and aircraft in high-risk areas spanning Cyprus, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, and Portugal.

Climate change is expected to intensify these effects. Greenhouse gas emissions have increased the planet's average temperature by around 1.3°C since pre-industrial times, supercharging the impacts of El Nino. This combination has led the WMO to warn that 2027 could be the hottest year on record.

UN officials emphasized the need for a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy in response to this warning. 'El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,' Guterres said. The trend could also lead to increased food prices due to potential crop reductions in key growing regions, affecting global consumers already facing inflation.

According to Daily Mail, experts warn that the price of common shopping basket items like tea, coffee, and fruit could skyrocket in Britain. Food prices in the UK are already on track to be 50% higher by November than they were five years ago. The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) predicts that extreme conditions driven by climate change and turbocharged by El Nino pose a threat to crops imported from overseas.

Scientists have also raised concerns that an imminent Super El Nino could trigger global famine. Extreme heat and drought could damage harvests and worsen global food insecurity this summer. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Meteorological Organization have shown that rising heat could make farm work unsafe for much of the year across South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of the Americas.

Dry weather is disrupting crop planting across Asia, raising concerns about food supplies in the world's most populous region. From India's grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia's eastern wheat belt, and from Thailand's rice fields to Indonesia's vast palm oil plantations, hot weather and below-normal rains are hurting crops and forcing farmers to reduce planting.

El Nino-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertilizer and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war. Wheat prices have risen about 20% since the start of 2026, largely on concerns over drought in key U.S. growing regions. Rice prices at major Southeast Asian export hubs have climbed around 15% over the past month on rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.

One of the strongest El Ninos on record is widely expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot-dry weather to Asia and excessive rains to the Americas. Global climate change is making things worse. 'The El Nino impact globally starts with Southeast Asia, India, Australia, before it has wider implications downstream in North America and South America,' said Chris Hyde, a U.S.-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi.

In India, the meteorological department last week further reduced its forecast for the four-month monsoon season, which delivers about 70% of annual rains. 'With temperatures across most parts of the country remaining well above normal, conditions are currently unfavorable for the timely sowing of summer crops,' said one New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

For Southeast Asian countries, dryness is hitting rice and palm oil yields in some areas. Rice prices are edging up even though India, which accounts for 40% of global exports, is sitting on ample supplies after years of near-record harvests. 'There is clear indication of crisis as rice prices have moved substantially higher without any major shortage,' said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company.

Recent rains over parched Australian farmland have triggered late wheat sowing, but growers are wary of the El Nino in the coming months that could hit yields. The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that many cropping areas across New South Wales and Queensland will see between 20 and 40 millimetres less rain than usual over the next three months.

Asia is predicted to be one of the regions most exposed, with intensifying heat and drought predicted to put major stresses on agriculture, power grids, and water supplies. Experts warn that El Nino could intensify heat conditions and weaken the monsoon, which is already predicted to deliver 'below average' rainfall. This would be disastrous for India and the wider subcontinent, which has been grappling with deadly heatwaves and an energy crisis due to the Middle East situation.

If El Niño causes the rains to arrive later, the ongoing heatwave in India will continue longer, crippling livelihoods and potentially leading to thousands of deaths. A shortage of rains would devastate farmers who rely on the monsoon for their next crop planting season. The current heatwave has already damaged wheat and mustard crops, and El Niño could worsen drought conditions, affecting food security.

Devender Sharma, an Indian agricultural expert and activist, expressed concerns about the combined impact of climate change and geopolitical situations on India's agriculture. Farmers in India are also worried about a potential fertilizer shortage due to the Middle East crisis. El Niño could exacerbate these issues, particularly for cities like Mumbai, which relies solely on rain-fed lakes for water. With current water reserves at critically low levels, a delayed monsoon could lead to a significant water crisis.

China is also bracing for severe weather conditions, with El Niño expected to cause increased rainfall in the south and higher temperatures nationwide. The National Climate Centre warned of extreme weather events, advising people to prepare for sudden changes. China has already issued warnings for severe rain and storms, with some areas experiencing over 200mm of rain.

In Southeast Asia, El Niño threatens prolonged heat, drought, wildfires, and air pollution. The region's agriculture and hydropower industries are particularly vulnerable, with countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines at high risk. The combination of El Niño and existing energy shortages could lead to food shortages and increased market prices, affecting local economies and nutritional security.

Remote rural areas in Southeast Asia, which often lack adequate water infrastructure, are expected to be hit hardest. The dry conditions could also spark agricultural and peatland fires, leading to toxic smoke plumes that affect major cities like Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Additionally, the region's tourism sector could suffer as high temperatures make outdoor attractions less accessible.