WMO Forecasts Record Heat Through 2030

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecasted that global temperatures will remain at or near record highs through 2030, with an 86% chance that one of the next five years will surpass the current record set in 2024. According to the WMO's annual Decadal Climate Update published Thursday, the average mean surface temperature from 2026 to 2030 is expected to be roughly 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 91% chance of exceeding the critical 1.5°C threshold.

The report, produced in collaboration with the UK Met Office and other global institutes, highlights the anticipated impact of El Niño conditions, which are expected to occur at least twice in the next five years. These events will likely drive higher temperatures in tropical regions and contribute to record-breaking heat globally. The Arctic is projected to experience temperatures 2.8°C above recent averages, warming more than three times faster than the global average.

The WMO's findings align with warnings from climate experts about the intensifying effects of global heating, including extreme weather events such as heatwaves and storms. The report underscores the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide emissions to mitigate further damage. Simon Stiell, UN climate chief, emphasized that protecting lives and economies from climate change requires rapid decarbonization and a shift away from fossil fuels.

While there is less than 1% chance of global temperatures exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the report warns that current trends make it unlikely to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C over a 20-year period. The WMO also predicts changes in rainfall patterns, with increased precipitation expected in Northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska, and Siberia, while the Amazon is forecasted to become drier.