Burnham Leads Makerfield By-Election Poll

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  • May 28, 2026 at 11:19 AM ET
  • Est. Read: 2 Mins
Burnham Leads Makerfield By-Election PollAI-generated illustration — does not depict real events

Key Takeaways

Andy Burnham holds a slim lead over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon in the Makerfield by-election according to the first poll. The Green Party has scaled back its campaign after Chris Kennedy withdrew due to social media controversies. The by-election is seen as critical for UK politics, with some analysts suggesting it could influence future leadership.

Andy Burnham holds a slim lead over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon in the Makerfield by-election according to the first poll of the campaign. The Green Party has decided to scale back its campaign efforts after Chris Kennedy withdrew due to revelations about social media posts, potentially boosting Burnham's chances of victory.

The upcoming by-election on June 18 is seen as a critical moment for UK politics, with some analysts suggesting it could determine the country's future political leadership. Voters in Ashton-in-Makerfield are being described as 'the kingmakers' or 'the king destroyers,' highlighting the constituency's pivotal role.

Burnham has distanced himself from his previous calls to end immigration benefits restrictions, a policy known as 'no recourse to public funds.' In 2019, he had stated on his mayoral website that one response to combat homelessness should be to abolish this policy. However, he recently rolled back on these statements.

Meanwhile, Jess Phillips has resigned as safeguarding minister, criticizing Keir Starmer's leadership for lacking 'boldness,' 'fight,' and 'drive.' She revealed she had threatened to quit multiple times over the Peter Mandelson scandal before finally resigning. Sir Keir was forced to sack Lord Mandelson from the role of US ambassador in September last year due to his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.

The Green Party's decision to run a scaled-back campaign comes after senior figures, activists, and academics urged the party not to split the progressive vote. Former Green Party leader Caroline Lucas called for the Greens to step aside in Makerfield on similar grounds. Labour MP Rupa Huq claimed that in 2017, the Greens stepped aside to allow her a clear run at her seat in Ealing Central and Acton.

The political landscape has shifted significantly following May's local elections, where Reform won 1,257 seats and 10 councils. In Makerfield, Reform took every council ward. The first poll of the by-election campaign suggested that Restore Britain fighting the election could be 'good news' for Burnham as it threatened to split the right-wing vote.

According to The Guardian, if Burnham replaces Starmer as prime minister in the coming months, he may feel compelled to secure his own mandate. Harriet Harman suggested that a leadership change could potentially trigger a general election, citing concerns about political stability and public perception. She noted that Nigel Farage might accuse Burnham of being a 'usurper,' which could pressure Burnham to call for an early election.

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