The first midterm primaries of the year weren't short on drama, particularly in Texas where key races highlighted shifting political dynamics. The Democratic contest for U.S. Senate was marred by voting issues affecting Harris County, causing confusion around ballot eligibility. Meanwhile, the Republican nomination is headed to a runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Key Takeaways
The first midterm primaries of 2026 in Texas have shown significant shifts in the political landscape. Key races include the U.S. Senate primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, which is headed to a runoff, and Rep. Dan Crenshaw's loss to Steve Toth in the GOP primary for Texas' 2nd Congressional District.
- The Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton will go to a runoff after neither candidate secured a majority of votes.
- Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost his primary race to state Rep. Steve Toth, marking the first House incumbent loss in 2026.
- The Democratic contest for U.S. Senate saw voting issues affecting Harris County, causing confusion around ballot eligibility.
- Several other races are too close to call or will advance to runoffs.
In another significant development, Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost his primary race in Texas' 2nd Congressional District to state Rep. Steve Toth, marking the first House incumbent loss of 2026. The fate of several more incumbents hangs in the balance as some races advance to runoffs and others remain too close to call.
As of 11:30 a.m. Wednesday, Cornyn led Paxton by about 26,000 votes out of a total 2.1 million counted so far. The tight margins in Houston, Dallas, and their surrounding areas underscore how the battle lines cut across rather than neatly between Texas' urban and suburban regions.
Cornyn led in the state's largest counties, including those encompassing the metro areas of Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, and Houston. However, Paxton remained competitive, trailing by roughly 1,700 votes in Harris County and 4,000 votes in Bexar County. Paxton won some fast-growing suburban counties around these cities, building a significant advantage in Montgomery County north of Houston.
The biggest separation between Cornyn and Paxton was in the counties least friendly to former President Donald Trump. This provided Cornyn with a 6,000-vote buffer. Conversely, Paxton received more total votes in the counties where Trump won at least 70% of the vote, aligning with his MAGA-faithful image.
In the Democratic contest for U.S. Senate, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are vying for the nomination. Crockett carried larger margins in East Texas but faced more modest margins in urban population centers compared to Talarico's decisive margins in southern and western regions with large Hispanic populations.
The bulk of Crockett's support came from Houston and Dallas, while Talarico received about 60% of the vote across border regions where Trump made inroads in 2024. The winner of this primary could signal which campaign strategy will be adopted by Democrats in future elections.
Other notable races include North Carolina's 1st District, where five Republicans ran to challenge vulnerable Democratic incumbent Rep. Don Davis. Laurie Buckhout emerged as the eventual winner with significant ad spending. Expensive races like Texas' 2nd and 23rd Districts featured incumbents fending off challengers amidst recent scandals.
The results of these primaries will shape the political landscape heading into the general election, highlighting the evolving dynamics within both major parties.
How this summary was created
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