White House Warns Staff on Prediction Markets

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  • April 10, 2026 at 12:09 PM ET
  • Est. Read: 2 Mins
White House Warns Staff on Prediction MarketsAI-generated illustration — does not depict real events
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Key Takeaways

The White House issued a warning to staff against using nonpublic information for betting on prediction markets. This followed concerns over large bets placed just before Trump's announcement of pausing Iran strikes, which caused oil prices to crash. The warning comes amid growing tensions between the administration and media organizations due to Trump's hostile actions towards critical news outlets.

Source Claims Check

High Consensus
All 6 publishers report consistent facts across 3 key claims.
ClaimStatusReason
Email Sent DateBroad AgreementEmail sent March 24, per multiple reports.
Bets On Oil FuturesBroad Agreement$500 million bet in one minute before announcement.
Oil Price CrashBroad Agreement15% crash in oil prices after announcement.
Email Sent Date
Broad Agreement
Email sent March 24, per multiple reports.
Bets On Oil Futures
Broad Agreement
$500 million bet in one minute before announcement.
Oil Price Crash
Broad Agreement
15% crash in oil prices after announcement.
This analysis is AI-generated and may not perfectly represent each source's reporting. Always read the original articles for full context.

The White House issued a warning to its staff last month against leveraging their positions to place bets on prediction markets using nonpublic information. According to multiple reports, the email was sent on March 24, following President Donald Trump's announcement of a five-day pause in some Iran strikes.

The warning came amid concerns over well-timed bets on oil futures markets shortly before Trump's announcement about delaying attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. Reuters noted that an unidentified trader or traders bet $500 million on Brent and WTI crude futures in a one-minute period just before the announcement, which resulted in a 15% crash in oil prices.

The Guardian, however, did not cover this aspect but focused on Trump's upcoming appearance at the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner and his threats to jail journalists. The article highlighted the growing tension between the administration and media organizations due to Trump's hostile actions towards news outlets deemed critical of him.

The BBC, CBS News, and CNBC reported on the email sent by the White House Management Office, which reminded staff that using nonpublic information for financial benefit is a serious offense. The email also referred staff to the White House Counsel's Office for further guidance. According to The Guardian, HuffPost announced it would not attend this year’s WHCA dinner due to Trump's record of hostility towards the press.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle emphasized that all federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines prohibiting the use of nonpublic information for financial gain. He also stated that any implication of such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.

The surge in popularity of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has raised questions about proper regulation and potential insider trading. CNBC reported that Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, called for an investigation into the irregular market activity preceding Trump's March 23 announcement.

How this summary was created

This summary synthesizes reporting from 6 independent publishers using AI. All sources are cited and linked below. NewsBalance is a news aggregator and media literacy tool, not a news publisher. AI-generated content may contain errors or inaccuracies — always verify important information with the original sources.

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