Italy Rejects Meloni's Judicial Reform in Referendum

Italian voters have rejected a constitutional referendum proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni that aimed to reform the country's judiciary system. The 'No' camp secured around 54% of the vote, while the 'Yes' camp received about 46%. The referendum, which concluded on Monday, asked voters whether to approve changes that would separate the career paths of judges and public prosecutors and split the country's judicial self-governing body into two entities.

Turnout reached a record-breaking 58.5%, according to data from the Italian interior ministry, contradicting ballot forecasts that it would be low. The high turnout surprised many, including Roberto D’Alimonte, a politics professor at Luiss University in Rome, who stated he was impressed by the level of participation.

The reform sparked intense debate, with Meloni arguing it was necessary to curb political influence in the judiciary. Opponents warned that the changes could undermine judicial independence and give Meloni de facto control over the magistrature. The opposition framed the vote as a de facto confidence vote on Meloni’s government.

The referendum comes amid a heated campaign marked by inflammatory rhetoric and accusations from both sides. Analysts suggest that the 'No' victory could strengthen the opposition's efforts to challenge Meloni ahead of next year’s general election. The outcome may re-energize the fragmented center-left, giving parties like the Democratic Party and 5-Star Movement impetus to forge a broad alliance against Meloni.

The defeat weakens Meloni domestically as she grapples with a stagnant economy and complex international headwinds. It could also weaken her standing in Europe, where she was previously seen as resilient and enduring. Meloni stated that Italians had voted 'with clarity' and she would respect their decision but regretted a 'lost chance to modernise' the country.

According to The Guardian, the referendum defeat highlights the political cost of Meloni's alignment with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Critics argue that her association with Trump has alienated voters who oppose Trump's abrasive personality and hostility towards Europe. This proximity to Trump may have mobilized more Italians to vote 'No' in the referendum.

The breakdown of the vote reflects these dynamics, with central regions traditionally left-leaning and major cities recording higher turnout. Youth mobilization was also significant, indicating that younger generations are unimpressed by Meloni’s record. Despite this setback, Meloni retains political strength and could stage a rebound, especially as the opposition remains divided.

Young voters played a crucial role in the referendum's outcome, with 68.4% of those aged 18 to 29 voting against the proposed judicial changes according to figures from Cise at Luiss University. This high turnout among younger Italians was notable given that students and workers living away from their registered home towns were unable to vote by proxy or post, forcing many to travel back.

The referendum's defeat has also led to internal turmoil within Meloni's government. Tourism Minister Daniela Santanchè resigned amid legal wranglings related to her business activities. Additionally, two justice ministry officials and fellow party members have stepped down, one of whom was revealed to have held shares in a restaurant with links to the mafia.

Meloni and Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, who drafted the overhauls, have rejected opposition calls to step down. The fallout has also shaken coalition partner Forza Italia, which backed the changes in honour of its late founder, Silvio Berlusconi. Maurizio Gasparri, a longtime Berlusconi loyalist, has resigned as the party’s senate chief while the leader, Antonio Tajani, reportedly faces the chop.

Matteo Salvini, the leader of the League and Meloni's third main alliance partner, sought refuge in Budapest to meet European far-right allies. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on Meloni as thousands are expected to march in Rome calling for an end to wars and her resignation.