U.S. Probes Russian Role in Iran's Drone Attacks on CIA Sites

U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating whether Russia has assisted Iran with targeting information or advanced drone technology for recent attacks on CIA facilities in the Gulf region, according to multiple sources familiar with U.S. intelligence.

The effectiveness of these strikes, particularly those involving Russian-enhanced versions of Iran's Shahed drones, has raised concerns about possible Russian involvement. At least two sites were struck in March: one at the U.S. embassy in Riyadh and another in eastern Iraq. An internal memo from a Western intelligence agency concluded that Russia has likely played a role in targeting these regional CIA facilities.

The attack on the Riyadh facility involved drones that blew a hole through a vulnerable part of the embassy's exterior, with one drone detonating inside. Concerns intensified after strikes on a U.S. air base in Jordan killed two soldiers and injured others. According to CBS News, Iran claimed new drone strikes on Friday against U.S. military facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia has provided Kometa-M drones to Iran, but the Kremlin denied these allegations as 'fake news.' The February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine drew the two sides closer militarily after Tehran provided Moscow with critical weapons. Last year, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty to increase defense cooperation.

Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po university in Paris, explained that Russian involvement in Iran’s targeting was a 'realistic' theory. She noted that while Iran has its own human intelligence-gathering networks, the country lacks advanced space-based capabilities compared to Russia. This makes it likely that Iran struck some deals with the Russians for targeting support.

As the crisis in the Middle East escalates, Iran has been bombing US bases and critical infrastructure in the Gulf with increasing accuracy, helped by Chinese satellite imagery and tactics learned from Russia in Ukraine. Three US soldiers were killed last Friday in an attack on the Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan, which was being protected by a Thaad air defence system. Satellite imagery later released by Iranian media showed several buildings had been destroyed.

It is not clear why the air defence system failed in that incident, which is under Pentagon investigation, but it is a reminder that Iran retains an effective missile capability that its new leadership is willing to deploy. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, said a combination of better intelligence, missile navigation, manoeuvrability and coordinated attack planning amounted to 'a real transformation'.

The first step was to use Chinese satellite imagery to help identify targets at US bases and other sites in the Gulf. The US imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies in May for providing such images. One, Mizar Vision, exposed the presence of US military aircraft and Patriot and Thaad air defence systems at bases in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Jordanian base hit last week.

Some experts said they were less sure Beijing had been providing intelligence. Sidharth Kaushal of the Royal United Services Institute said Iran had focused on static targets at US bases, for which commercial imagery was enough. 'I haven’t seen anything where Iran has struck a target so dynamic that I’ve looked at this and gone “this has got to be foreign aid,”' he said.

A string of accurate Iranian attacks on CIA facilities across the Gulf during the bombings made US analysts wonder whether Russia had shared locations with Tehran, but the hypothesis is tentative. The US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, told Congress this week that China and Russia were helping Iran to some extent. But Donald Trump contradicted him on Friday, saying Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin had personally assured him that they would not sell weapons to Iran.

Iran’s ballistic programme relies heavily on Chinese electronics and ammonium perchlorate for rocket fuel, but the finished weapons are considered sophisticated enough to be able to occasionally defeat stretched US and Gulf air defences. Iranian missiles boast complex navigation, using GPS, China’s BeiDou and Russia’s Glonass simultaneously as they launch towards targets.