The US-Israel campaign against Iran has drawn parallels to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine due to shifting goals, unclear timelines, and dubious justifications.
Key Takeaways
The US-Israel campaign against Iran and Russia's invasion of Ukraine share similarities in evolving goals, defensive justifications, and unexpected durations. Both conflicts have seen shifting objectives and unanticipated prolonged engagements.
- Both the US and Russia portray their actions as defensive measures against imminent threats.
- Political and media elites in both countries initially reacted with horror but eventually fell into line behind the wars.
- South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's stance aligns with Russian talking points, suggesting NATO expansion was a central cause of the conflict.
- Ukrainian forces claim battlefield successes while Russia asserts progress in eastern Donbas.
- US-brokered talks between Ukraine and Russia are postponed due to the Middle East conflict.
Both conflicts have seen evolving objectives. Early US statements framed the strikes as a response to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and degrading its missile capabilities. However, goals have increasingly become more maximalist, with Donald Trump calling for regime change in Tehran. Similarly, Russia’s stated objectives in Ukraine shifted from 'demilitarisation and denazification' to protecting Russian speakers and securing control over territories.
The language used by both sides also carries similarities. Both the US and Russia have portrayed their actions as defensive, citing what experts say are dubious claims of preventing imminent threats. Neither leader expected a prolonged conflict, with Putin believing the war in Ukraine would last mere weeks and Trump expecting a swift victory based on previous successes.
The reaction from political and media elites has also been similar. Much of the Russian establishment initially horrified by the invasion ultimately fell into line behind the war. Similarly, some US commentators who had strongly criticised Russia’s invasion struggled to maintain clarity when their own country went to war.
Meanwhile, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's stance on Russia's invasion aligns with Russian talking points. In a New York Times interview, Ramaphosa suggested that Ukraine’s effort to join NATO was a central cause of the conflict and that Russia’s demand that Ukraine not join NATO 'needs to be heeded'. This view has been criticised as it aligns with core Russian propaganda.
The question now is whether the US can avoid the pitfalls that ensnared Russia in Ukraine. Commentators have cautioned against overly ambitious strategic goals, warning that such campaigns can slide into a war of attrition. The parallels between the two conflicts continue to raise concerns about their potential outcomes.
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