The UK's population is expected to grow more slowly than previously projected, reaching 71 million by mid-2034 instead of the earlier estimate of 72.2 million. This revision comes from lower immigration assumptions and declining fertility rates, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The population is now forecasted to peak at 72.5 million in 2054 before beginning a gradual decline.
Key Takeaways
The UK's population growth projections have been revised downward due to lower immigration assumptions and declining fertility rates. The ONS now expects the population to reach 71 million by mid-2034, down from a previous estimate of 72.2 million.
- UK population expected to peak at 71 million by 2034
- Net migration projected to add 2.2 million people between 2024 and 2034
- Deaths will outnumber births annually from 2026 onwards
- Population growth driven solely by net migration in coming decades
Net migration will be the primary driver of population growth over the next decade, with an estimated 2.2 million people added to the UK's population between mid-2024 and mid-2034. However, this increase will be offset by a reduction of 450,000 due to deaths exceeding births annually from 2026 onwards.
According to James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, previous estimates suggested continuous growth until 2096. The new data indicates the population will peak in the 2050s before decreasing. This slower growth rate is attributed to people having fewer children and having them later in life.
The ONS emphasized that these figures are based on recent trends and do not account for potential future policy changes or other factors affecting migration, fertility, or mortality. Dr Madeleine Sumption of Oxford University's Migration Observatory noted the post-Brexit immigration peak is now treated as a 'blip' rather than an ongoing trend.
By 2034, pensioners are expected to make up a fifth of the population. Despite rising state pension age, they remain the fastest-growing section of the population while children's numbers fall by 1.6 million. The working-age population will increase by 1.5 million but not as quickly as the growth in extra pensioners.
In Scotland, the National Records of Scotland (NRS) revised its projection, indicating that the country's population will peak at 5.56 million in 2033 before dropping to 5.47 million by 2049. This change is mainly driven by a fall in international migration from unusually high levels.
Healthy life expectancy (HLE) in the UK has also declined, falling by around two years to just under 61 for both men and women over the past decade. The Health Foundation's analysis identified poverty, poor housing, lifestyle factors such as obesity, and the impact of the Covid pandemic as contributing factors.
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