China Tests Submarine-Launched Missile in Pacific

China conducted a long-range ballistic missile test from one of its nuclear-powered submarines in the South Pacific on Monday, July 6, 2024. The test was part of China's annual military training exercises and carried a dummy warhead. According to Xinhua News Agency, the launch complied with international law and was not aimed at any specific country or target.

The People's Liberation Army Navy confirmed via social media that the missile landed accurately in the target sea area but did not disclose the exact impact location or missile type. Analysts believe this may have been the JL-3, China's newest submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range exceeding 10,000 kilometers. The test was conducted at 12:01pm local time (0401 GMT) and landed in 'designated waters,' according to Xinhua.

Regional powers expressed concern over the lack of transparency and potential safety risks. Japan's government said it received notification of the missile launch and urged China to reconsider, citing grave concern over increased Chinese military activity. The Japanese Coast Guard had been notified about falling space debris that could fall within Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Australia condemned the test as 'destabilizing' for the region, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressing real concern over the test of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile.

New Zealand criticized the launch for being conducted within hours of notification in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. The zone was established by the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga, which prohibits nuclear weapons throughout the region. China rejected international criticism, describing the launch as routine military training under safety standards.

Analysts and diplomats suggest that this test provided an opportunity for China to evaluate complex operations related to its evolving nuclear deterrent. The ability to command, control, and communicate with nuclear-armed submarines operating undetected is a significant challenge for China's military leadership. Collin Koh, a security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that while there are still challenges ahead, China appears to be getting close to an operational strike capability.

China's submarine operations, based out of Hainan Island, are closely watched elements of its military modernization. The U.S. and its allies attempt to track Chinese submarines through various means, including naval vessels, underwater sensors, and air patrols with advanced maritime surveillance devices. As China's capabilities grow, such tracking efforts are expected to increase.