The United Kingdom's population growth projections have been revised downward due to lower immigration assumptions. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population is now expected to reach 71 million by mid-2034, down from a previous estimate of 72.2 million. Net migration is projected to add 2.2 million people to the UK's population between mid-2024 and mid-2034, while deaths exceeding births will reduce the population by 450,000.
Key Takeaways
The UK's population growth estimate has been lowered due to reduced immigration assumptions. Meanwhile, healthy life expectancy in the UK has fallen by two years over the past decade, raising concerns about deteriorating public health.
- UK population expected to reach 71 million by mid-2034, down from previous estimates of 72.2 million
- Net migration projected at 230,000 per year, a significant drop from previous figures
- Healthy life expectancy has fallen to just under 61 years for both men and women in the UK
- The decline is attributed to factors such as obesity, mental health issues, and lifestyle choices
Net migration remains the sole driver of expected population growth, with no contribution from natural increases. The lower projected growth could pose fiscal challenges for finance minister Rachel Reeves in her upcoming autumn budget. However, the ONS cautioned that these projections are not definitive forecasts but rather extrapolations based on recent trends and do not account for potential future policy changes or other factors affecting migration, fertility, or mortality.
Separately, a new report highlights a concerning decline in healthy life expectancy (HLE) across the UK. Over the past decade, HLE has dropped by around two years to just under 61 for both men and women. The UK is one of only five of the richest 21 countries to see such a decline, with its fall being the second steepest. The Health Foundation, which produced the analysis, attributed this trend to factors such as poverty, poor housing, lifestyle choices like obesity, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The analysis found significant disparities in HLE across different regions. For instance, in England, Richmond upon Thames had the highest rates of HLE at 69 for men and 70 for women, while Blackpool and Hartlepool saw much lower figures at around 51 years. The report also noted that in more than 90% of areas, HLE was now below the state pension age of 66 or 67, indicating that people are spending a substantial portion of their lives in ill-health before retirement.
The decline in healthy life expectancy has significant economic implications. The Health Foundation emphasized that poor health is driving people out of the workforce and locking young individuals out of education and employment opportunities. This trend aligns with other data showing high numbers of people unable to work due to ill-health. The report called for urgent action from policymakers to address these issues, highlighting the need for prevention-focused strategies and tackling the root causes of poor health.
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