The United Kingdom's population growth projections have been revised downward due to lower immigration assumptions and declining fertility rates. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population is now expected to reach 71 million by mid-2034, down from a previous estimate of 72.2 million.
Key Takeaways
The UK's projected population growth has been reduced due to lower immigration assumptions and declining fertility rates. Deaths are expected to outnumber births annually from 2026, with significant economic implications for healthcare and pensions.
- ONS revises UK population projection down to 71 million by mid-2034
- Net migration projected to add 2.2 million people between mid-2024 and mid-2034
- Deaths expected to exceed births annually from 2026, reducing the population by 450,000 in a decade
- Pensioners will make up a fifth of the UK's population by 2034, increasing pressure on NHS and pensions
Net migration is projected to add 2.2 million people to the UK's population between mid-2024 and mid-2034, while deaths exceeding births will reduce the population by 450,000 in that same period. Deaths are expected to outnumber births annually from 2026 onwards.
James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, noted that previous projections suggested continuous growth until 2096. However, the new data indicates the population will peak in the 2050s before decreasing. The slower growth rate is attributed to people having fewer children and having them later in life.
The ONS stressed that these figures are projections based on recent trends and do not account for potential future policy changes or other factors affecting migration, fertility, or mortality. Dr Madeleine Sumption of Oxford University's Migration Observatory noted the post-Brexit immigration peak is now treated as a 'blip' rather than an ongoing trend.
By 2034, pensioners are expected to make up a fifth of the population. Despite rising state pension age, they remain the fastest-growing section of the population while children's numbers fall by 1.6 million. The working-age population will increase by 1.5 million but not as quickly as the growth in extra pensioners.
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